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Surprising Fourth Roll 63: 65R-64P-61P-63 *ROLLOUT*

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Wednesday, 27 July 2011, at 8:18 p.m.

In Response To: Surprising Fourth Roll 63: 65R-64P-61P-63 (Paul Weaver)

The equity difference between the two top plays hovered around 0.003 for the last few thousand games.

1. What can you say about this rollout?

2. Should it be extended?

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, leo 1 (match to 7 points)

Move number 3: leo to play 63

gnubg	149
leo	157
Position ID: 4NvgAyCGZ/ABMA Match ID: cAnvAAAACAAE

• leo moves 24/15

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		-0.165	(Money: -0.175)
	0.425 0.121 0.002 - 0.575 0.142 0.006
Cubeful equities:
	4-ply cubeful prune
1.	No double	-0.282
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+1.282
3.	Double, take	-0.909	-0.627
Proper cube action:		No double, take (32.8%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	24/15	-0.370
			0.411 0.100 0.004 - 0.589 0.151 0.006 -0.239 -0.370 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			6489 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 923568318 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/21 13/7	-0.373 ( -0.003)
			0.410 0.117 0.004 - 0.590 0.153 0.008 -0.227 -0.373 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			6453 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 923568318 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/10 13/7	-0.451 ( -0.082)
			0.391 0.125 0.005 - 0.609 0.156 0.010 -0.265 -0.451 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.011
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1298 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 923568318 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/4	-0.469 ( -0.099)
			0.385 0.112 0.003 - 0.615 0.150 0.007 -0.281 -0.469 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1298 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 923568318 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	4	13/7 6/3	-0.521 ( -0.151)
			0.377 0.109 0.002 - 0.623 0.170 0.010
			4-ply cubeful prune
	6	4	24/21 8/2	-0.535 ( -0.165)
			0.372 0.090 0.002 - 0.628 0.170 0.007
			4-ply cubeful prune
	7	4	13/7 8/5	-0.556 ( -0.186)
			0.373 0.110 0.002 - 0.627 0.181 0.013
			4-ply cubeful prune
	8	4	13/10 8/2	-0.590 ( -0.220)
			0.361 0.105 0.002 - 0.639 0.177 0.009
			4-ply cubeful prune

Messages In This Thread

• Surprising Fourth Roll 63: 65R-64P-61P-63
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 4 July 2011, at 11:37 p.m.
  • Surprising Fourth Roll 63: 65R-64P-61P-63
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 5 July 2011, at 3:29 p.m.
  • Surprising Fourth Roll 63: 65R-64P-61P-63
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 5 July 2011, at 6:06 p.m.
  • 65R-64P-61P-63 and 65R-53P-61P-63
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 6 July 2011, at 6:03 a.m.
    • 65R-64P-61P-63 and 65R-53P-61P-63
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 26 July 2011, at 6:32 p.m.
    • 65R-64P-61P-63 and 65R-53P-61P-63
      Turz -- Wednesday, 27 July 2011, at 9:22 a.m.
  • Surprising Fourth Roll 63: 65R-64P-61P-63 *ROLLOUT*
    leobueno -- Wednesday, 27 July 2011, at 8:18 p.m.
    • Surprising Fourth Roll 63: 65R-64P-61P-63 *ROLLOUT*
      Stick -- Wednesday, 27 July 2011, at 8:25 p.m.
    • Surprising Fourth Roll 63: 65R-64P-61P-63 *ROLLOUT*
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 27 July 2011, at 9:02 p.m.