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BGonline.org Forums
To play 31
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: To play 31 (Marcos Nahhas)
Date: Thursday, 28 July 2011, at 5:32 p.m.
I'm always leery of breaking the rear anchor in these sorts of situations even when they yield more immediate root numbers, because the tradeoff is usually less long-term shot equity. But let's count. Suppose we play 24/21*; then we have a choice of 22/21 or 5/4 for the ace. After 24/21* 5/4, what numbers force White to expose another blot immediately? I see 21 31 41 32 42 for a total of 10 rolls, with 11 being especially bad for Blue. After 24/21* 22/21, the same numbers blot as well as 22, so 24/21* 22/21 looks better.
If we play the more normal-looking 22/21*/18, then only 21 31 32 blot immediately—6 rolls instead of 11. On the other hand, keeping the 24pt should give us more chances of hitting another shot later.
There is also 22/21* 5/2, maximizing our shot potential after 32 and also preparing to make a five-point board, but sacrificing half our roll when White rolls 52 or 62. I think I prefer 22/21*/18 to 22/21* 5/2 but I'm not sure.
How badly do we want to expose that second checker? Fairly badly, I think. With White having six checkers off and our having only a four-point board, I think we can't double until White exposes another checker.
I'll go with 24/21* 22/21 though without any confidence.
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