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BGonline.org Forums
To play 31
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: To play 31 (Timothy Chow)
Date: Thursday, 28 July 2011, at 6:30 p.m.
I'd play 22/21 5/2*.
Like Tim, I'm wary in such positions of breaking the final defending point -- here the 24 point -- just to shake loose a few more immediate shots. Such plays are a "now or never" tradeoff, because often if you don't hit that acepoint blot, Opp makes the point, and you've giving up a lot of cumulative opportunities to hit a blot later.
So, with regard to 24/21* 22/21, you do pick up 4-1, 4-2 and 2-2 as immediate blotting numbers. However,
(a) some (a lot?) of the extra immediate hits don't matter because you'll get them anyway down the road.
(b) you've turned 1-1 into a devastating number, pointing on your 24 point. It will be very difficult to get a second checker.
(c) there's a big swing on 2-1. With other plays Opp must break his 5 point, creating two new blots. But after 24/21* 22/21 he can play 2-1 bar/23 2/1* -- and it's "now or never." Perhaps look at it this way: those 6 checkers now on Opp's deuce point? If Opp makes his acepoint you'll never get a shot at any of them.
It's hard to estimate all future shots, but if Opp enters on the deuece he's only a slight favorite to escape, and if on the acepoint an underdog, and most nonescaping numbers will shake loose one or two blots.
With regard to the other plays, I didn't count but at a glance it looks like 5/2* does as Tim points out maximize shots if Opp enters with 2-3. And if Opp rolls 2-5 or 2-6, it's not clear but I think I'd rather be able to play from the bar and keep 5 checkers waiting to receive Opp's blot, then to have to play some numbers by advancing far into the outfield (would you rather play 6-X from the bar or not?).
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