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Optimal Strategy against a better opponent

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 29 July 2011, at 8:06 p.m.

In Response To: Optimal Strategy against a better opponent (christian munk-christensen)

I second Christian's observations. A lot of players overestimate their superiority against lesser opponents, and do indeed piss away a lot equity with late doubles, bad drops and fearful play.

For what it's worth, suppose you, rated 1600, are playing a 7-point match against a 1700 opponent. The rating equation says you're a 42% underdog. Now suppose your strategy is to make enough "bad" moves and cube decisions in the first game to guarantee (let's stipulate) that the 7-point match ends in one game. Well, 1425 vs 1700 is 42% in a 1-point match. That's a lot of room for volatility-raising error.

But trying to raise volatility by steering games to mutually gammonish, double-edged positions and with speculative cubing is likely to backfire; you risk underestimating the equity you're giving up, and you give up equity by winding up in positions you're likely to understand less well than your opponent. Even if you're right that your opponent is really so much better than you, he'll win more than his fair share of gammons and 4-cubes; you won't. And you should be wary of overestimating your opponent's edge. Instead of aiming for volatile positions and high cubes, why not, as Christian recommends, aim for simple positions that you understand? Solid play is winning play; why not let your fearful opponent make the errors?

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