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Optimal Strategy against a better opponent

Posted By: Fabrice Liardet
Date: Friday, 29 July 2011, at 9:09 p.m.

In Response To: Optimal Strategy against a better opponent (Max Levenstein)

As others explained, what you say is both correct and well-known. A small paradox in backgammon (and probably in other domains as well) is that there are many more occurrences of adjusting (or over-adjusting) to a weaker opponent than of adjusting to a stronger opponent. I see three reasons for that :

1) Depending of the playing field considered, there can be a lot of players who are weak enough to not realize that they should adjust (or in what direction they should adjust).

2) The self-serving bias, the sort of thing that makes 80% of people think that they are above average drivers.

3) Even when people are aware of being weaker, they can be reluctant to give that info away when there are potential spectators.

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