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Rollout: 14 checkers in the zone, but...

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 30 July 2011, at 6:40 p.m.

In Response To: 14 checkers in the zone, but... (Timothy Chow)

I was playing XG here and doubled. I rolled 31 and then XG rolled 62, so had I waited I would have lost my market. Nevertheless this is apparently not quite a technically correct cube. In a chouette, I'd still double even after seeing this rollout unless I was sure everyone would take.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 104
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab-D--E-C-AAb-b--A-cc-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 60.04% (G: 23.48% B: 2.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.96% (G: 6.71% B: 0.31%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.07% (G: 23.60% B: 2.48%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.93% (G: 6.69% B: 0.30%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.201
Double:+0.784
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.518
Double/Take:+0.440 (-0.078)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.482)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.019 (+0.499...+0.537)
Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.416...+0.464)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 36 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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