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Recube action 7-away 14-away

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 30 July 2011, at 9:16 p.m.

In Response To: Recube action 7-away 14-away (Daniel Murphy)

Nobody has figured out a take point yet, why wouldn't we start there?

  • Double/Pass would give us 15 away 5 away or 10% ME
  • Double/Take/Lose would give us 15 away 3 away or 4% ME
  • Double/Take/Win would give us 10 away 7 away or 34% ME

Those figures were obtained using Neil's Numbers and a hash of common sense.

So, to get our take point we use the formula risk/(risk+gain). We would be risking 6% (10-4) to gain 24% (34-10). So 6/(6+24) or 6/30 = ~20% as our raw take point. This number is usually off a little in one direction or another at these extreme scores due to rounding. We have yet to take into account recube vig which at a normal score may be worth ~3-4% but here since our opponent's take point on an 8 cube is way high (about 39%) we have a lot more cube leverage. This should plummet our live cube take point to ~13%.

I would start with the Keith Count to get myself a ballpark or where I am in this race. (even though it feels like I have to have more than 13%) The Keith Count gives an adjusted count of 66 for the person considering whether or not to double and 65 for the taker/passer. So for money the Keith Count says this would be a (re)double and standard pass. This would alert me to my chances being not over 20% but certainly over 13% so for this particular problem I would do no more work.

Stick

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