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BGonline.org Forums
Against weaker player...
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Against weaker player... (Klaus Evers)
Date: Sunday, 31 July 2011, at 4:31 p.m.
I think your interest in avoiding gammon loss here has some merit because trailing -3-1C after a single-game loss is more valuable to you than it would be against an equal opponent. But I think your approach is overly simplistic for two reasons. First, granted that you don't wish to lose a gammon, you also wish to win gammons and win games. Is it enough to simply choose the play with the least gammon losses? Second, suppose you knew exactly how many wins, gammon wins and gammon losses would result from one or another play you are considering. Possessing that information, how accurate would your judgement be of wins, gammon wins and gammon losses from this position against this particular player?
Seems to me that deviating from best play is fraught with opportunity to err in your estimation of the position, your opponent, and what you might gain or lose from the various probable outcomes, in comparison to your equity from simply making the play you would make against an equal opponent.
To answer your other question, it's clear to me that anchoring 24/21 22/21 ought to be the play that loses the least gammons, and 6/3 22/21 ought to be the best play, winning more games and winning more gammons while risking more gammon losses, although I could hardly begin to quantify exactly how the various results balance against this particular opponent.
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