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Hit or not Hit?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 1 August 2011, at 11:44 p.m.

In Response To: Hit or not Hit? (Max Levenstein)

At least part of this solution should be easy to estimate. Let's address the hit first. If we hit and are not hit back I count those games all as wins, so that's 25/36 games straight away. What about the 11 games where we are hit? We still retain good winning chances sometimes having an immediate direct shot and other times maintaining our space in the race. Out of the remaining 11 games I would guess we win ~half of them. That brings our wins up to 30/36 games or just over 83%. The hitting play will also obviously win the uber rare gammon whereas not hitting will not. Estimating 1% gammon wins for this play is standard.

Now the question becomes does not hitting win more than 83%? I'll let someone else handle the tougher part of the equation.

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or not Hit?
  Max Levenstein -- Monday, 1 August 2011, at 8:31 p.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    Udo Moerschbach -- Monday, 1 August 2011, at 9:17 p.m.
    • Hit or not Hit?
      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:46 a.m.
      • Hit or not Hit?
        Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:51 a.m.
        • Hit or not Hit?
          Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:55 a.m.
          • Hit or not Hit?
            Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 7:04 a.m.
            • Hit or not Hit?
              Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 7:25 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    Stick -- Monday, 1 August 2011, at 11:44 p.m.
    • Hit or not Hit?
      Kevin Whyte -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:06 a.m.
    • Nigel Merrigan's formula
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:50 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 2:20 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:45 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:04 p.m.
        • Nigel Merrigan's formula
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 2:05 p.m.
          • Nigel Merrigan's formula
            Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:33 p.m.
            • Nigel Merrigan's formula
              Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 4:03 p.m.
              • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:57 p.m.
                • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                  Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 8:56 p.m.
                  • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                    Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 11:50 p.m.
                    • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 3 August 2011, at 3:46 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 4:46 p.m.
    • Hit or not Hit?
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:49 a.m.
      • Hit or not Hit?
        Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 4:21 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:05 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit? 3 similar positions
    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:10 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    falafel -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:15 p.m.