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Hit or not Hit?

Posted By: Kevin Whyte
Date: Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:06 a.m.

In Response To: Hit or not Hit? (Stick)

I'll take a stab, mostly to see if I can actually use the Keith count correctly - after 12/6, 1 off I get a Keith count of 52. That would indicate a last take point of 50 for White, so losing 83% with no gammons either way is a pretty clear drop, so perhaps that would be around a Keith count of 52 for White. Currently I get 60 for white, and with an average roll at 8+ pips plus a chance to fill one of the empty spots, I'd guess white will average a bit better than that - so I'd put the winning chances without hitting at a bit under 83%. Hit?

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or not Hit?
  Max Levenstein -- Monday, 1 August 2011, at 8:31 p.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    Udo Moerschbach -- Monday, 1 August 2011, at 9:17 p.m.
    • Hit or not Hit?
      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:46 a.m.
      • Hit or not Hit?
        Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:51 a.m.
        • Hit or not Hit?
          Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:55 a.m.
          • Hit or not Hit?
            Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 7:04 a.m.
            • Hit or not Hit?
              Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 7:25 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    Stick -- Monday, 1 August 2011, at 11:44 p.m.
    • Hit or not Hit?
      Kevin Whyte -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:06 a.m.
    • Nigel Merrigan's formula
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:50 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 2:20 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:45 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:04 p.m.
        • Nigel Merrigan's formula
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 2:05 p.m.
          • Nigel Merrigan's formula
            Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:33 p.m.
            • Nigel Merrigan's formula
              Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 4:03 p.m.
              • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:57 p.m.
                • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                  Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 8:56 p.m.
                  • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                    Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 11:50 p.m.
                    • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 3 August 2011, at 3:46 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 4:46 p.m.
    • Hit or not Hit?
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:49 a.m.
      • Hit or not Hit?
        Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 4:21 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:05 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit? 3 similar positions
    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:10 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    falafel -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:15 p.m.