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Nigel Merrigan's formula

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:50 a.m.

In Response To: Hit or not Hit? (Stick)

Let's try Nigel Merrigan's formula (before the roll). I'm not sure exactly what to use for PLT (point of last take) but let's try 7 pips. Then the Metric Formula gives 66.5%, plus we need to add 1.6% for E-Pips, for a total estimated winning probability of 68.1%. Blue's 61 seems like an average roll, one pip short of the average of 8 pips but getting two crossovers, so I don't think it changes Blue's winning chances much. If Stick's estimate of 83% for the hitting play is about right then this calculation suggests that hitting is right by a mile, even if my PLT estimate is a bit off.

Maybe Chuck can do a Kleinman Count for comparison.

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or not Hit?
  Max Levenstein -- Monday, 1 August 2011, at 8:31 p.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    Udo Moerschbach -- Monday, 1 August 2011, at 9:17 p.m.
    • Hit or not Hit?
      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:46 a.m.
      • Hit or not Hit?
        Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:51 a.m.
        • Hit or not Hit?
          Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:55 a.m.
          • Hit or not Hit?
            Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 7:04 a.m.
            • Hit or not Hit?
              Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 7:25 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    Stick -- Monday, 1 August 2011, at 11:44 p.m.
    • Hit or not Hit?
      Kevin Whyte -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:06 a.m.
    • Nigel Merrigan's formula
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:50 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 2:20 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:45 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:04 p.m.
        • Nigel Merrigan's formula
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 2:05 p.m.
          • Nigel Merrigan's formula
            Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:33 p.m.
            • Nigel Merrigan's formula
              Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 4:03 p.m.
              • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:57 p.m.
                • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                  Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 8:56 p.m.
                  • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                    Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 11:50 p.m.
                    • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 3 August 2011, at 3:46 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 4:46 p.m.
    • Hit or not Hit?
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:49 a.m.
      • Hit or not Hit?
        Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 4:21 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:05 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit? 3 similar positions
    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:10 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    falafel -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:15 p.m.