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Recube action 7-away 14-away - RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 1:09 a.m.

In Response To: Recube action 7-away 14-away (Stick)

Calculating the doubling window ATS and estimating whether the Win% is within that window is a sound procedure. In the original position the dead cube take point is about 22% but recube vig on the potential 8-cube means the live cube take point is much, much deeper.

Thanks, Stick.

The original position:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 3, Blue 10 (match to 17 points)

Move number 4: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	61
Blue	51
Position ID: u9sGCAB35w4AAA Match ID: UQkgAjAAUAAE

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.663	(Money: +0.663)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.905
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.095
3.	No double	+0.867	-0.038
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.831 0.000 0.000 - 0.169 0.000 0.000 +0.663 +0.867 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 Player White owns 4-cube 0.831 0.000 0.000 - 0.169 0.000 0.000 +1.179 +0.905 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
312 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 924009349 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Above, it's not clear to me how to accurately zoom in on a Win% within Stick's very reasonable above 80% but below 87%. I estimated 83-84% with a quick 10%+2 count. Below, if we fill in Blue's gap on the four point, the take becomes an easy pass:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 3, Blue 10 (match to 17 points)

Move number 4: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	61
Blue	51
Position ID: u9sGCAB32w4AAA Match ID: UQkgAjAAUAAE

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.756	(Money: +0.756)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000
2.	Double, take	+1.176	+0.176
3.	No double	+0.935	-0.065
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.878 0.000 0.000 - 0.122 0.000 0.000 +0.756 +0.935 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 Player White owns 4-cube 0.878 0.000 0.000 - 0.122 0.000 0.000 +1.365 +1.176 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
327 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 924009349 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Recube action 7-away 14-away
  Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 29 July 2011, at 8:49 p.m.
  • Recube action 7-away 14-away
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Friday, 29 July 2011, at 8:54 p.m.
  • Recube action 7-away 14-away
    ah_clem -- Friday, 29 July 2011, at 9:05 p.m.
  • Recube action 7-away 14-away
    Udo Moerschbach -- Friday, 29 July 2011, at 9:37 p.m.
    • prop.
      Higonefive -- Friday, 29 July 2011, at 9:54 p.m.
      • prop.
        Udo Moerschbach -- Saturday, 30 July 2011, at 12:08 a.m.
  • Recube action 7-away 14-away
    Higonefive -- Friday, 29 July 2011, at 9:50 p.m.
  • Recube action 7-away 14-away
    Stick -- Saturday, 30 July 2011, at 9:16 p.m.
    • Recube action 7-away 14-away
      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 30 July 2011, at 11:22 p.m.
      • Recube action 7-away 14-away
        Stick -- Sunday, 31 July 2011, at 12:18 a.m.
        • Recube action 7-away 14-away
          Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 31 July 2011, at 2:10 a.m.
    • Recube action 7-away 14-away - RO
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 1:09 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 1:33 a.m.
  • Recube action 7-away 14-away
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 31 July 2011, at 3:35 a.m.
    • Recube action 7-away 14-away
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 31 July 2011, at 1:53 p.m.