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How much do crossovers matter again?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 1:16 a.m.

In Response To: How much do crossovers matter again? (Daniel Murphy)

Keith Count gives Blue 74 pips and White 83 pips; adding 1/7 of 74 to 74 gives 84, which indicates ND/T.

Alternatively we could try to estimate EPC. Blue has a pretty flat position but nothing on the ace point, so I'd guess 9 pips of wastage. White has a flat position but with an extra checker on the ace point, so I'd guess that's about 12 pips of wastage. That gives EPCs of 82 versus 90, which should be D/T.

Either way we get a take. But intuitively it seems that White's position is worse than the adjusted pip counts indicate because she still needs to roll at least 24 pips before she can start bearing off. On the other hand White gains if Blue rolls a 1. My guess is D/T.

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