BGonline.org Forums

Hit or not Hit?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:51 a.m.

In Response To: Hit or not Hit? (Casper van der Tak)

I think Stick's estimate of the wins is also a bit off because giving all wins after hit and miss is too generous

I'm simplifying of course but I'm always surprised how well simplification works out in estimating. There are normally minor offsetting variants but in this position for example it's easy to see that after hit + dance (16/36) I would say we're gin or 99%. We aren't counting the hitting games (11) so that leaves us 9 games to figure out when our opponent enters how often might he win. Even in these variants does he win 1/10 on average? Doubtful - I'll stick by my simplification as pretty accurate.

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or not Hit?
  Max Levenstein -- Monday, 1 August 2011, at 8:31 p.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    Udo Moerschbach -- Monday, 1 August 2011, at 9:17 p.m.
    • Hit or not Hit?
      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:46 a.m.
      • Hit or not Hit?
        Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:51 a.m.
        • Hit or not Hit?
          Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:55 a.m.
          • Hit or not Hit?
            Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 7:04 a.m.
            • Hit or not Hit?
              Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 7:25 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    Stick -- Monday, 1 August 2011, at 11:44 p.m.
    • Hit or not Hit?
      Kevin Whyte -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:06 a.m.
    • Nigel Merrigan's formula
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:50 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 2:20 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:45 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:04 p.m.
        • Nigel Merrigan's formula
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 2:05 p.m.
          • Nigel Merrigan's formula
            Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:33 p.m.
            • Nigel Merrigan's formula
              Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 4:03 p.m.
              • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 6:57 p.m.
                • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                  Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 8:56 p.m.
                  • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                    Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 11:50 p.m.
                    • Nigel Merrigan's formula
                      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 3 August 2011, at 3:46 a.m.
      • Nigel Merrigan's formula
        Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 4:46 p.m.
    • Hit or not Hit?
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:49 a.m.
      • Hit or not Hit?
        Stick -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 4:21 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:05 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit? 3 similar positions
    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:10 a.m.
  • Hit or not Hit?
    falafel -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 3:15 p.m.