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Rollout

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 9:11 p.m.

In Response To: 62S-54X-11N-52> Double? (mtuhtan)

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 185 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 156 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=aaa--BCAB--AeD---cAd----A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 69,34% (G:25,26% B:1,75%) 69,57% (G:25,97% B:1,63%) Opponent Winning Chances: 30,66% (G:5,60% B:0,23%) 30,43% (G:5,78% B:0,25%) Cubeless Equities +0,599 +1,214 Cubeful Equities No double: +0,892 (-0,088) ±0,007 (+0,884..+0,899) Double/Take: +0,980 ±0,010 (+0,970..+0,990) Double/Pass: +1,000 (+0,020) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 97565062 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Double Decision confidence: 100,0% Take Decision confidence: 100,0% Duration: 40 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

I was playing this as White. Blue (XGR+) doubled and I thought this was much bigger take than it is.

I probably mistaken this position to the one where blue has both back checkers on 24pt, which is of course much bigger take:

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 185 Unlimited Game Jacoby pip: 162 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=aaa--BCAB--AeD---c-d----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 67,74% (G:24,47% B:1,57%) 67,42% (G:26,10% B:1,60%) Opponent Winning Chances: 32,26% (G:6,04% B:0,23%) 32,58% (G:6,33% B:0,26%) Cubeless Equities +0,553 +1,119 Cubeful Equities No double: +0,843 (-0,042) Double/Take: +0,885 Double/Pass: +1,000 (+0,115) Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

Messages In This Thread

• 62S-54X-11N-52> Double?
  mtuhtan -- Monday, 1 August 2011, at 5:50 p.m.
  • 62S-54X-11N-52> Double?
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 1 August 2011, at 7:02 p.m.
  • 62S-54X-11N-52> Double?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 12:27 a.m.
  • 62S-54X-11m-2-C
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 4:23 p.m.
  • Rollout
    mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 2 August 2011, at 9:11 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Nack Ballard -- Friday, 5 August 2011, at 7:20 p.m.