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Curious about the effect when I first studied this, I moved Opp's 4pt blot to the 3pt (51$-53N-11), as shown in the right-hand position. According to the trunc, hitting (with 22/21 as the fourth ace, reaching the same position) is still better than priming but by only .017, a swing of .068.
The value of the right-hand reference position is twofold: (1) When compared to the left-hand position, it helps demonstrate the difference between hitting on the 21pt and the 22pt (there are other examples); and (2) It suggests that making the 7pt in general is worth roughly the same as hitting on the 22pt (at least when one also has the synergy of owning the 5pt).
In Miran's position, shown below, White has an additional problem: her midpoint is stripped. As a consequence, she is more likely to leave an offensive blot next roll (with 16 numbers by my count!), either because it is forced or in the struggle to obtain a balance in the inferior priming battle.
[It is true that White also owns her 5pt, which increases Blue's incentive to escape or anchor, and therefore to hit. OTOH, with his taller 6pt, Blue is prioritizing the spare-spreading 6/5 with one of his aces regardless, so he doesn't gain the value of splitting with 24/23 that he gains when he doesn't hit in the positions above. I estimate those factors roughly offset each other.]
In short, I believe Blue should make his prime (below) and hope to procure an even larger advantage by hitting next roll.
| 148 | |
|---|---|
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| 51$-62$-51N-54D-52%-11 | 150 |
Nack