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BGonline.org Forums
Leave a double shot, a triple shot, or no shots?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Leave a double shot, a triple shot, or no shots? (Timothy Chow)
Date: Wednesday, 3 August 2011, at 6:13 p.m.
Pay now or later?
Timing/Race? Blue is ahead by 76-86 pips after the play, although the timing seems not quite as bad as that suggests, since White is also stripped in the outfield.
Danger now? With those two White blots in the home board, surprisingly small. Look at 18/11: White can hit and leave no direct shots with 6-1 2-2 2-1 1-1 , leave one direct shot with 6-6 6-5 6-2 5-2, and leave two direct shots (or not hit) with 6-4 6-3 5-1 4-2 3-3 (can prime) 3-2. Other numbers miss.
Likelihood of escaping cleanly later? Both positions are stripped, Blue's more than White's, if White can use the 8 point checkers safely, so: not good.
We also have cube access, which may not make any difference for best play, but run/miss/run beats waitwaitwait cubeful, I think, because we're more likely to get to a good doubling position.
Danger later? Next roll, White can use about half his numbers to make a 5 point board, so: high, or at least a lot more than now.
If Blue stays, only 6-2 for White forces a blot.
I think that all favors running now. So let's look at 18/11 vs. the "triple shot" 18/13 8/6. The 6-prime locks up all wins in hit exchanges. The 18 point checker (if missed) lets 5-1 4-1 and 3-2 play safely. Shots? Amazingly, 18/13 8/6 doesn't appear to be much more dangerous, because of the duplication of aces to hit and cover. To the list of plays after 18/11, add only 4-1 and 3-1 to numbers that hit and leave two blots (which would make Blue a favorite).
However, after 18/13 8/6, 66 64 63 62 (sometimes) 61 43 42 33 31 22 21 and 11 don't clear, and many of the nonclearers are worse (the doubleshot 11, and a few more shots on 31 and 21). After 18/11, 66 62 (again sometimes) 51 42 41 33 32 31 22 21 11 don't clear. That's 20 numbers vs 18, because we've traded 64 63 61 and 43 for 51 41 and 32. About 5% difference. But we're only concerned with the sequence (after 18/13 8/6) of: we're missed, we roll one of the 2 extra numbers that don't clear, we get hit, and lose.
So 18/13 8/6 looks a bit more dangerous -- only (surprisingly) slightly, but I'm not convinced that making the board with 8/6 is worth it. If there's some other reason to play 18/13 8/6, I can't think of it. So I play 18/11.
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