OTB my opp played the "normal" looking 23/22 5/2 and soon ended up hopeless crunched. That play simply isn't good enough at this score where G's/BG's lost don't matter.
A better 3 is 4/1 trying to get hit and hoping to save some timing somehow.
6/3 2/1 will almost ensure getting hit, but the problem is that a 12 backgame often results and that may end up with even worse timing.
          
 
        
 | | White is neilkaz
score: 6
pip: 117 | | 7 point match | pip: 154
score: 1
Blue is Star4u |
|
| XGID=-bbaBCCCB-----A----babcb-A:1:1:-1:31:6:1:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/22 4/1 | eq: -0.7069 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 14.35% (G:0.49% B:0.01%)
85.65% (G:49.37% B:14.37%) | Conf.: ±0.0022 (-0.7092...-0.7047) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/3 2/1 | eq: -0.7224 (-0.0155) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 13.70% (G:0.29% B:0.01%)
86.30% (G:52.87% B:19.81%) | Conf.: ±0.0026 (-0.7250...-0.7198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 23/22 6/3 | eq: -0.7321 (-0.0252) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 13.11% (G:0.54% B:0.01%)
86.89% (G:46.74% B:12.41%) | Conf.: ±0.0020 (-0.7341...-0.7302) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 24 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 23/22 5/2 | eq: -0.7789 (-0.0720) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 10.64% (G:0.69% B:0.01%)
89.36% (G:42.80% B:9.09%) | Conf.: ±0.0017 (-0.7806...-0.7773) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 6/5 6/3 | eq: -0.7850 (-0.0780) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 10.36% (G:0.66% B:0.01%)
89.64% (G:43.75% B:9.79%) | Conf.: ±0.0017 (-0.7866...-0.7833) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67389374
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2