GNU 2-ply hits here. The XG rollout favors anchoring, though I didn't roll it out long enough to get a reliable estimate of the equity difference.
Note that it's not just a matter of the race and Blue's weak board, but also the quality of the 20pt anchor. For example, in the variant position below where there is a choice whether to hit or to anchor on the 21pt, XGR+ clearly prefers to hit.
         
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 176 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 154
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--ab--EBC--AeB---b-d-a--AA:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 54 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 24/20 | eq: +0.513 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.22% (G:16.49% B:0.62%)
37.78% (G:6.81% B:0.28%) | Conf: ± 0.017 (+0.496...+0.530)
Duration: 5 hours 31 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/21* 21/16 | eq: +0.476 (-0.036) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.94% (G:22.95% B:1.30%)
41.06% (G:8.50% B:0.37%) | Conf: ± 0.027 (+0.449...+0.503)
Duration: 7 hours 50 minutes |
|
| |
1 2304 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 177 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 154
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--ab--EBC--AeB---b-da---AA:0:0:1:34:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 34 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/22 24/20* | eq: +0.421 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.57% (G:21.99% B:1.34%)
41.43% (G:8.30% B:0.34%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/21 24/21 | eq: +0.371 (-0.049) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.87% (G:17.04% B:0.75%)
41.13% (G:8.51% B:0.31%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21