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Rollout: Leave a double shot, a triple shot, or no shots?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 4 August 2011, at 1:54 p.m.

In Response To: Leave a double shot, a triple shot, or no shots? (Timothy Chow)

The XG rollout favors leaving the triple shot. However, the rollout may not be entirely trustworthy, because 18/13 8/6 scores so poorly on 1-ply that on most settings it doesn't get considered further. Whenever rollout and evaluation differ this dramatically, there's a decent chance that the bot doesn't understand the position. Still, what that may mean is that 18/13 8/6 may be even better than the rollout suggests.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 86
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 83
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-BBCBBA-A---b---b-Bbbbcaa-:0:0:1:52:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 52

1.Rollout118/13 8/6eq: -0.167
Player:
Opponent:		 43.63% (G:6.07% B:0.30%)
56.37% (G:6.00% B:0.12%)		Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.172...-0.162)
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.Rollout16/1 3/1eq: -0.197 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		 43.01% (G:1.65% B:0.03%)
56.99% (G:2.51% B:0.05%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.203...-0.191)
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
3.Rollout18/1eq: -0.206 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		 43.14% (G:1.85% B:0.04%)
56.86% (G:2.51% B:0.05%)		Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.213...-0.199)
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
4.Rollout118/11eq: -0.207 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		 42.02% (G:9.15% B:0.21%)
57.98% (G:5.00% B:0.17%)		Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.212...-0.202)
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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