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Example of large equitiy difference beteween 4-ply analysis and rollout

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Thursday, 4 August 2011, at 7:55 p.m.

In Response To: Example of large equitiy difference beteween 4-ply analysis and rollout (Timothy Chow)

In the position Tim suggested and discussed [ http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=55995 ](Robertie Problem 101), my 4-ply analysis shows a much narrower difference than Tim's 2-ply analysis. The rollout shows the reveral between the top 2 candiadates.

The equity swing between the 4-ply analysis and the rollout is of whopper magnitute, 0.132. I am trying to learn how to identify those types of positions. I think the dicussion pointed to volatility.

Have you seen positions that beat that swing number?

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, leo 0

Move number 3: leo to play 56

gnubg	127
leo	154
Position ID: tm3AATDYTuIBMA Match ID: cIkaAAAAAAAA

• leo moves 13/8 13/7

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		-0.196
	0.449 0.143 0.006 - 0.551 0.226 0.018
Cubeful equities:
	4-ply cubeful prune
1.	No double	-0.237
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+1.237
3.	Double, take	-0.758	-0.521
Proper cube action:		No double, take (29.6%)

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.033)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	4	13/8 10/4	-0.421
			0.403 0.135 0.005 - 0.597 0.218 0.017
			4-ply cubeful prune
•	2	4	13/8 13/7	-0.455 ( -0.033)
			0.412 0.116 0.004 - 0.588 0.282 0.035
			4-ply cubeful prune
	3	4	24/18 13/8	-0.624 ( -0.203)
			0.407 0.115 0.004 - 0.593 0.364 0.020
			4-ply cubeful prune
	4	4	24/13	-0.738 ( -0.316)
			0.383 0.101 0.004 - 0.617 0.355 0.014
			4-ply cubeful prune
	5	4	13/7 10/5	-0.837 ( -0.416)
			0.354 0.105 0.004 - 0.646 0.317 0.041
			4-ply cubeful prune
	6	4	10/4 8/3	-0.893 ( -0.472)
			0.331 0.098 0.003 - 0.669 0.290 0.031
			4-ply cubeful prune
	7	4	10/5 8/2	-0.919 ( -0.498)
			0.320 0.096 0.003 - 0.680 0.280 0.028
			4-ply cubeful prune
	8	4	24/18 10/5	-1.000 ( -0.579)
			0.338 0.101 0.004 - 0.662 0.426 0.027
			4-ply cubeful prune

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, leo 0

Move number 3: leo to play 56

gnubg	127
leo	154
Position ID: tm3AATDYTuIBMA Match ID: cIkaAAAAAAAA

• leo moves 13/8 13/7

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		-0.196
	0.449 0.143 0.006 - 0.551 0.226 0.018
Cubeful equities:
	4-ply cubeful prune
1.	No double	-0.237
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+1.237
3.	Double, take	-0.758	-0.521
Proper cube action:		No double, take (29.6%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/8 13/7	-0.341
			0.424 0.102 0.005 - 0.576 0.272 0.034 -0.350 -0.341 0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.017
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1304 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 923908415 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/8 10/4	-0.440 ( -0.099)
			0.397 0.121 0.005 - 0.603 0.218 0.017 -0.316 -0.440 0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1300 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 923908415 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	4	24/18 13/8	-0.624 ( -0.283)
			0.407 0.115 0.004 - 0.593 0.364 0.020
			4-ply cubeful prune
	4	4	24/13	-0.738 ( -0.396)
			0.383 0.101 0.004 - 0.617 0.355 0.014
			4-ply cubeful prune
	5	4	13/7 10/5	-0.837 ( -0.496)
			0.354 0.105 0.004 - 0.646 0.317 0.041
			4-ply cubeful prune
	6	4	10/4 8/3	-0.893 ( -0.552)
			0.331 0.098 0.003 - 0.669 0.290 0.031
			4-ply cubeful prune
	7	4	10/5 8/2	-0.919 ( -0.578)
			0.320 0.096 0.003 - 0.680 0.280 0.028
			4-ply cubeful prune
	8	4	24/18 10/5	-1.000 ( -0.659)
			0.338 0.101 0.004 - 0.662 0.426 0.027
			4-ply cubeful prune

Messages In This Thread

• Example of large equitiy difference beteween 4-ply analysis and rollout
  leobueno -- Thursday, 4 August 2011, at 5:29 p.m.
  • Example of large equitiy difference beteween 4-ply analysis and rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 4 August 2011, at 5:38 p.m.
    • Example of large equitiy difference beteween 4-ply analysis and rollout
      leobueno -- Thursday, 4 August 2011, at 7:55 p.m.