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OLM Fr 08/05/11

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Saturday, 6 August 2011, at 2:40 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Fr 08/05/11 (Jason Lee)

Well, a 5-pip lead has now turned into 16. We've borne off 4 fewer checkers than White. I guess doubles four will do that to you.

Some might play 6/5, 6/4, reasoning that we must roll doubles to get back into it, and stacking up the 5 and 6 points prepares the landscape. Sounds good, but the two must certainly come off now. So, perhaps 6/5, 2/off would cater better to this line of thinking. Unfortunately, this play will increase our expected wastage in this position.

In a close race, playing 2/off, 2/1 would be my play. Dare I risk that here? I usually don't like to setup for doubles until the last one or two tosses.

Instead of imagining that we will win this by rolling 66, 55, and 44, I like to I imagine that White will roll a series of misses: ones, twos and fours. At the same time, we can roll better than average (65, 64, 63, 54, etc.), along with the odd double (not just the big ones), and perhaps squeak by with a joker on the last. That plan seems more likely to succeed than simply expecting to produce two sets of boxes on demand. In this vision/dream, I don't want to stack them up, I want to spread them out.

My move: 2/1, 2/off

Mike

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