| |
BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 8/3
Posted By: Bill Calton In Response To: Daily Quiz 8/3 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Saturday, 6 August 2011, at 5:22 a.m.
1. Many options.
Hit & Lift? 21/17*, 3/2 . Even with two on the bar, White should come in with both soon. I don’t binking and bopping your way home is the way to go.
Hit & Shift? 21/17*, 4/3. Maybe. Gives you direct 4’s and 6’s to cover if White misses. On the other hand, your 4’s especially are duplicated next turn. The 6 duplication shouldn’t be a factor. I expect you have plenty of time to waste a 6 to cover and escape later. Maybe.
Hit & Inch forward? 21/17*, 10/9. This is an alternative execution of the hit and stay strategy. Perhaps this gives better diversification. 5’s and 6’s to cover. And 4’s to pop a back man out should you get hit next time. Maybe.
Cover? 8/3. This is the big question. I did this out of order b/c if you cover is best, you really don’t even need to consider the other plays. The 5 point board is really nice, especially if he dances. On the other hand, even if he does dance you still might not get the second checker.
What’s most likely to happen next exchange?
Cover (8/3). 70% dance * 30 %hit second checker. About 20% of the time he has 2 on the bar against 5 point board. So less than the greedy play. But, 30% of the time he just comes in and has real chances.
hit & inch forward (21/17*, 10/9). Rough estimate. A bit less than ½ the time he dances and then we cover about ¾ or high 30%s we have two up against a 5 board. This is good. Sometimes he rolls a single 5 and we most likely cover. He still has to bring in the 4th man and if he does it will be harder for him to win from there. He may roll a single 4. This is bad, but we will have entering 5’s and 6’s to hit back and may yet win the fight for the 4-point.
As usual, I really don’t know what to do, despite all the above meandering. My gut says try to snuff out his game, especially with the cube turned and the potential extra G’s floating out there. 21/17*, 10/9.
2. 4 point board, up in the race, plus a blot. Looks like a double. Not many point making numbers, good offensive structure, some minor duplication of 4’s to step up and 4’s to make a point. I’ll venture a take. Double/ Take.
3. Double for sure. Can White take? Up in the race, better board, significant threats including elevated gammons spells trouble for me. I say Double / Drop.
4. 13/7*, 6/1* looks wrong here. I don’t think we want to blitz holding the cube and with the worse board. I like 9/3, 8/3. Slow, steady improvement. Even if White anchors with a 6, we still have the advantage in the game plus the cube. If white doesn’t anchor, we may even be able to recube right away.
5. 6/2 is god-awful looking but I don’t want to get hit either. I don’t see anything else, so 6/2.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.