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Post-Crawford cube action

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 6 August 2011, at 6:40 p.m.

In Response To: Post-Crawford cube action (David Rockwell)

Yes, this gammonless position at even-away post-Crawford is a take.

Brownie leads 1-away 4-away. If Brownie drops he leads 1-away 3-away post-Crawford and his Match Winning Chance is, I'll say, 68%. If he takes and loses he leads 1-away 2/away and his MWC is 51.5% (not 50% because Brownie will have a free drop). Taking risks 16.5% MWC to gain 32% MWC, so Brownie's take point = R/(R+G) = 16.5/48.5 = 34%.

Creamie's pip lead is 2. In a race of this length, an equal pip count would mean CPW of slightly less than 60%. So a 2 pip lead should mean CPW of more than 60%, but surely less than 66%.

Thank you for posting this, David. It was interesting to discover that online sources that mention using the free drop at even-away scores other than 2-away assume an early-game doubling decision and imply or outright state that free drop strategy at 4-away and 2-away are identical or nearly so.

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