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BGonline.org Forums
Post-Crawford cube action
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Post-Crawford cube action (David Rockwell)
Date: Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 1:35 a.m.
Dropping gives the leader approx 68% MWC, take and lose gives him about 51% MWC(the free drop is probably worth about 1%), take and win wins the match with 100% MWC. So the gammonless takepoint's about 17/49. I think Black's winning chances are about 38%, so it's a pretty clear take.
If he takes and loses this game, he will still have the free drop option in the next game. If he drops here, he won't have any more free drops in the match.
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