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RO and explanation

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 1:03 p.m.

In Response To: Post-Crawford cube action (Chuck Bower)

What I find interesting is the reason that the take point is considerably lower than a 50% free drop. Several people gave the reason which I will repeat in my own words. The match leader can win the match by:

1. Winning the first game or

2. Avoiding a gammon in the first game and winning the second.

The match leader can profitably forfeit some of the (approximately) 50% winning chances available in a new game by playing this position where he is assured of a second chance if he loses.

is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 116
4 point match
pip: 114
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=----BBD-CA--cC-aab-dbb----:0:0:1:00:0:3:0:4:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.96% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) 60.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 39.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.219 +0.841
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.788 (-0.053)±0.000 (+0.788..+0.789)
Double/Take:+0.841±0.000 (+0.841..+0.841)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.159)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13934021
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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