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1k is a donkey - Extended Rollouts - Ummm?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 11:23 p.m.

In Response To: 1k is a donkey (Nack Ballard)

It seems like Kevin caught a bad seed in his rollout so that the 1k results were all over the place. Below I've reproduced his rollout, ran my own GNU rollout, and extended the XG rollout to 5k to reduce the variance. The 1k >> 5k XG rollout changed by ~.004 per play whereas Kevin's GNU rollout has one play needing a big change and I assume if extended it would come to match up with XG's rollout. (and the GNU 2k that I ran)

Now, big problem with the GNU rollouts, why doesn't my reproduced GNU rollout match up with Kevin's rollout?!? Same seed was used, seems like the same settings (Kevin did you have Jacoby toggled on?), and wildly different results.

I know Nack doesn't trust full 1k rollouts in that they bring with them a lot more variance than people realize but I wonder if he has more confidence in a 1k XG2 4ply/XGR+ rollout than your old GNU 2/2 rollout?

Kevin's original rollout reproduced (tried anyway)

gnubg139


1O '2X ' '5X '4X ' ' '4O

1X '2O1X '5O '2O ' '1O2X

Stick139

Position ID: jM+DASKMz8gDIA Match ID: cAkPAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R 11/5 8/5 +0.115
0.5300.1610.006-0.4700.1270.004 +0.096 +0.115
0.0010.0020.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.010
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1297 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 924382547 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 24/15 +0.110 ( -0.005)
0.5350.1110.005-0.4650.1300.004 +0.051 +0.110
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0020.000 0.003 0.007
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1297 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 924382547 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 24/18 11/8 +0.073 ( -0.042)
0.5280.0950.005-0.4720.1240.003 +0.028 +0.073
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.003 0.007
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 924382547 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

My own GNU 2/2 rollout, different seed

gnubg139


1O '2X ' '5X '4X ' ' '4O

1X '2O1X '5O '2O ' '1O2X

Stick139

Position ID: jM+DASKMz8gDIA Match ID: cAkPAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
• 1 R 11/5 8/5 +0.123
0.5310.1630.006-0.4690.1290.005 +0.097 +0.123
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.002 0.006
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2593 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 923837891 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 24/15 +0.092 ( -0.031)
0.5320.1110.005-0.4680.1310.004 +0.045 +0.092
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.002 0.005
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2593 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 923837891 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 R 24/18 11/8 +0.082 ( -0.041)
0.5280.0980.005-0.4720.1230.003 +0.033 +0.082
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.002 0.006
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 923837891 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

XG 5k rollout
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 139
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-Ba-E-B--AbD---d-e--b-A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 63
1.Rollout111/5 8/5eq: +0.120
Player:
Opponent:		52.97% (G:15.63% B:0.54%)
47.03% (G:12.13% B:0.41%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.114...+0.125) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 59 minutes
2.Rollout124/15eq: +0.097 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		53.48% (G:10.36% B:0.49%)
46.52% (G:12.44% B:0.42%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.092...+0.102) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 49 minutes
3.Rollout124/18 11/8eq: +0.083 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		52.76% (G:9.53% B:0.47%)
47.24% (G:11.93% B:0.30%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.078...+0.088) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 hours 23 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25743099
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+

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