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EPC

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 8 August 2011, at 2:51 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 08/06/11 ROLLOUT (Daniel Murphy)

EPC is not really relevant here because it measures the average number of rolls. Here, on average, we just lose. :-) More precisely, what matters here is the "tail probability," i.e., the probability of the the unlikely scenarios in which we win.

I see now why 3/2 is better than catering to double 4's with 6/4: If we roll something mediocre involving a 2, all is not lost just yet and we benefit from bearing a checker. Our predicament is not yet so desperate that the only way to win is to roll 66 55 44 consecutively.

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