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Rollout

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Tuesday, 9 August 2011, at 11:35 a.m.

In Response To: My backgame errors (mtuhtan)

In each diagram, you can see what I played - there is an asterisk after the number.

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1.

In the comments, most of you mentioned hitting from 20pt, but I rejected that play immediately.
I decided to slot 4pt, but it seems that leaves back checkers somewhat disconnected.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 129 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 217 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-----BB-b-BA--a-ccBeBBaB--:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 65

1. Rollout1 18/13 18/12 eq: +0,040 Player: Opponent: 54,25% (G:11,67% B:0,49%) 45,75% (G:22,78% B:0,91%) Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,033...+0,048) - [100,0%] Duration: 56 minutes 38 seconds 2. Rollout1 18/7 eq: +0,010 (-0,030) Player: Opponent: 53,36% (G:11,84% B:0,52%) 46,64% (G:22,69% B:0,90%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,002...+0,017) - [0,0%] Duration: 55 minutes 41 seconds 3.* Rollout2 11/6 10/4 eq: -0,012 (-0,052) Player: Opponent: 52,84% (G:11,80% B:0,53%) 47,16% (G:23,06% B:0,94%) Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,023...-0,001) - [0,0%] Duration: 26 minutes 37 seconds 4. XG Roller+ 10/5 10/4 eq: -0,076 (-0,116) Player: Opponent: 52,21% (G:11,52% B:0,50%) 47,79% (G:23,48% B:1,14%) 5. XG Roller+ 18/12 11/6 eq: -0,077 (-0,117) Player: Opponent: 52,29% (G:11,45% B:0,49%) 47,71% (G:23,89% B:1,08%) 1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 108617 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 108617 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

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2.

I had an idea that this is good roll to start moving checkers from 23pt, but now when I look at the position it seems like a wrong idea.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 122 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 206 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=----ABC-a-A-a-a-ccBdBBbB--:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 65

1. Rollout1 18/13 18/12* eq: -0,005 Player: Opponent: 53,06% (G:12,25% B:0,54%) 46,94% (G:23,31% B:1,10%) Conf.: ± 0,012 (-0,016...+0,007) - [100,0%] Duration: 27 minutes 16 seconds 2.* Rollout1 23/12* eq: -0,054 (-0,050) Player: Opponent: 51,67% (G:11,68% B:0,51%) 48,33% (G:23,98% B:0,87%) Conf.: ± 0,013 (-0,067...-0,042) - [0,0%] Duration: 29 minutes 16 seconds 3. XG Roller+ 18/12* 12/7 eq: -0,132 (-0,127) Player: Opponent: 50,98% (G:11,63% B:0,58%) 49,02% (G:25,04% B:1,46%) 4. XG Roller+ 18/7 eq: -0,140 (-0,135) Player: Opponent: 50,74% (G:10,58% B:0,44%) 49,26% (G:24,00% B:1,02%) 5. XG Roller+ 18/13 10/4 eq: -0,155 (-0,150) Player: Opponent: 50,34% (G:10,63% B:0,44%) 49,66% (G:24,20% B:1,06%) 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 108617 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

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3.

On the previous move I decided to move from 23pt, so now I probably didn't realized that remaking 23pt would be good so I didn't hit loose on 4pt.
My idea was to come out from 20p, trying to have better control in the outfield.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 128 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 223 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=----aBC--Aa---a-ccBdCBbA-A:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 54

1. Rollout1 Bar/21 9/4* eq: -0,146 Player: Opponent: 50,38% (G:10,88% B:0,45%) 49,62% (G:27,76% B:0,82%) Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,155...-0,137) - [100,0%] Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes 2.* Rollout1 Bar/21 20/15 eq: -0,190 (-0,043) Player: Opponent: 50,07% (G:10,07% B:0,40%) 49,93% (G:30,24% B:0,93%) Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,200...-0,179) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes 3. XG Roller+ Bar/20 18/14* eq: -0,283 (-0,137) Player: Opponent: 47,84% (G:10,63% B:0,47%) 52,16% (G:28,55% B:1,21%) 4. XG Roller+ Bar/21 23/18 eq: -0,335 (-0,189) Player: Opponent: 47,12% (G:9,41% B:0,43%) 52,88% (G:30,47% B:0,75%) 5. XG Roller+ Bar/20 9/5 eq: -0,389 (-0,243) Player: Opponent: 45,61% (G:9,24% B:0,41%) 54,39% (G:31,16% B:0,85%) 1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 108617 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

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4.

My biggest error. But now I see I'm not the only one who chose that play. Feeling little better now :)

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 111 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 223 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=-----BC--a-----AcdCeBCbA--:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 51

1. Rollout1 15/9* eq: -0,243 Player: Opponent: 49,64% (G:9,24% B:0,35%) 50,36% (G:32,27% B:0,87%) Conf.: ± 0,015 (-0,257...-0,228) - [100,0%] Duration: 30 minutes 32 seconds 2.* Rollout1 21/15 eq: -0,330 (-0,088) Player: Opponent: 48,11% (G:8,48% B:0,30%) 51,89% (G:35,34% B:0,70%) Conf.: ± 0,013 (-0,344...-0,317) - [0,0%] Duration: 31 minutes 19 seconds 3. XG Roller+ 21/20 18/13 eq: -0,377 (-0,134) Player: Opponent: 47,87% (G:9,13% B:0,35%) 52,13% (G:35,61% B:1,00%) 4. XG Roller+ 18/13 15/14 eq: -0,386 (-0,143) Player: Opponent: 47,82% (G:9,07% B:0,35%) 52,18% (G:36,04% B:1,04%) 5. XG Roller+ 18/12 eq: -0,401 (-0,159) Player: Opponent: 47,36% (G:8,84% B:0,35%) 52,64% (G:36,14% B:1,04%) 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 108617 Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00

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Thank you all who replied and shared your thoughts! It is very helpful to me!

Messages In This Thread

• My backgame errors
  mtuhtan -- Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 11:07 a.m.
  • My backgame errors
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 12:27 p.m.
  • My backgame errors
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 3:51 p.m.
    • My backgame errors
      Ben E. -- Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 6:35 p.m.
    • My backgame errors
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 7:27 p.m.
  • My backgame errors
    Stick -- Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 5:42 p.m.
    • My backgame errors
      mtuhtan -- Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 5:49 p.m.
      • My backgame errors
        Stick -- Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 6:21 p.m.
        • the 20/23 backgame
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 8 August 2011, at 2:43 a.m.
          • the 20/23 backgame
            Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 8 August 2011, at 6:26 a.m.
        • XGR++
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 8 August 2011, at 9:52 p.m.
          • XGR++
            Stick -- Tuesday, 9 August 2011, at 12:39 a.m.
            • XGR++
              Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 9 August 2011, at 7:18 a.m.
            • XGR++
              Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 10 August 2011, at 1:21 a.m.
    • My backgame errors
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 5:52 p.m.
      • My backgame errors
        Stick -- Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 6:01 p.m.
        • Neil or Falafel, what do you think and why? ;) *NM*
          mtuhtan -- Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 6:12 p.m.
          • Neil or Falafel, what do you think and why? ;)
            neilkaz -- Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 11:45 p.m.
            • Neil or Falafel, what do you think and why? ;)
              mtuhtan -- Monday, 8 August 2011, at 5:36 a.m.
              • Neil or Falafel, what do you think and why? ;)
                falafel -- Wednesday, 10 August 2011, at 2:18 a.m.
  • My backgame errors
    christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 7 August 2011, at 7:39 p.m.
  • Rollout
    mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 9 August 2011, at 11:35 a.m.