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Be alert

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 11 August 2011, at 4:40 p.m.

In Response To: Be alert (Dmitriy Obukhov)

Blue can choose to have either a ~4-roll or 5-roll position. White's gammon count is 38. For 2/off 1/off to be right, it must win twice as many additional gammons as it loses additional games. If that were all there was to it, I'd take two off. 4-roll is surely much better than 5-roll versus White's gammon count and if White hits, Blue is still a huge favorite to win the game. But there's more to it. When White hits he becomes much more likely to save the gammon. So the additional gammons Blue wins when White does not hit must be balanced both against the additional losses when White hits and against the additional gammons Blue does not win when White hits. I don't think it's even close, so I play 4/2 1/off.

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