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BQ: Hit or not hit? *** 4-ply analysis and ROLLOUT ***

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Friday, 12 August 2011, at 6:47 p.m.

In Response To: BQ: Hit or not hit? (leobueno)

GNUbg 4-ply analysis says hit.

The rollout says not hit. Note: stopped rollout manually; JSDs > 5 for the hitting plays.

So, when we do a GNUbg analysis, how do we decide that this was a position that merited questioning the bot's analysis?

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, leo 0

Move number 3: leo to play 65

gnubg	174
leo	125
Position ID: vCcAgDds2wYEIQ Match ID: cAkXAAAAAAAE

• leo moves 20/14 15/10

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		+1.543
	0.932 0.605 0.076 - 0.068 0.002 0.000
Cubeful equities:
	4-ply cubeful prune
1.	No double	+1.581
2.	Double, take	+3.039	+1.458
3.	Double, pass	+1.000	-0.581
Proper cube action:		Too good to double, pass (28.5%)

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.045)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	4	24/19* 15/9	+1.731
			0.949 0.685 0.122 - 0.051 0.000 0.000
			4-ply cubeful prune
	2	4	24/19*/13	+1.731 ( -0.000)
			0.949 0.685 0.121 - 0.051 0.000 0.000
			4-ply cubeful prune
	3	4	24/19* 20/14	+1.725 ( -0.006)
			0.949 0.682 0.119 - 0.051 0.000 0.000
			4-ply cubeful prune
•	4	4	20/14 15/10	+1.686 ( -0.045)
			0.960 0.657 0.089 - 0.040 0.001 0.000
			4-ply cubeful prune
	5	4	20/9	+1.683 ( -0.048)
			0.959 0.655 0.088 - 0.041 0.001 0.000
			4-ply cubeful prune
	6	4	24/13	+1.678 ( -0.053)
			0.962 0.651 0.082 - 0.038 0.001 0.000
			4-ply cubeful prune
	7	4	24/18 15/10	+1.677 ( -0.054)
			0.962 0.651 0.082 - 0.038 0.001 0.000
			4-ply cubeful prune
	8	4	15/4	+1.672 ( -0.059)
			0.955 0.650 0.089 - 0.045 0.001 0.000
			4-ply cubeful prune

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, leo 0

Move number 3: leo to play 65

gnubg	174
leo	125
Position ID: vCcAgDds2wYEIQ Match ID: cAkXAAAAAAAE

• leo moves 24/18 20/15

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		+1.543
	0.932 0.605 0.076 - 0.068 0.002 0.000
Cubeful equities:
	4-ply cubeful prune
1.	No double	+1.581
2.	Double, take	+3.039	+1.458
3.	Double, pass	+1.000	-0.581
Proper cube action:		Too good to double, pass (28.5%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	24/13	+1.503
			0.911 0.530 0.064 - 0.089 0.000 0.000 +1.417 +1.503 0.003 0.004 0.004 - 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			770 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 929214794 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/18 15/10	+1.494 ( -0.009)
			0.909 0.531 0.062 - 0.091 0.000 0.000 +1.410 +1.494 0.003 0.004 0.003 - 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			766 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 929214794 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	24/18 20/15	+1.484 ( -0.018)
			0.909 0.528 0.060 - 0.091 0.000 0.000 +1.406 +1.484 0.003 0.005 0.004 - 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.010 0.011
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			759 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 929214794 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	15/4	+1.478 ( -0.025)
			0.888 0.537 0.076 - 0.112 0.001 0.000 +1.389 +1.478 0.003 0.004 0.004 - 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			765 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 929214794 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	20/14 15/10	+1.473 ( -0.030)
			0.890 0.533 0.072 - 0.110 0.000 0.000 +1.384 +1.473 0.003 0.004 0.004 - 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			768 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 929214794 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	20/9	+1.465 ( -0.038)
			0.886 0.533 0.074 - 0.114 0.001 0.000 +1.378 +1.465 0.003 0.005 0.004 - 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.010 0.013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			759 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 929214794 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	7	R	24/19* 15/9	+1.414 ( -0.089)
			0.840 0.538 0.097 - 0.160 0.000 0.000 +1.314 +1.414 0.004 0.005 0.005 - 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.011 0.015
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			759 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 929214794 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	8	R	24/19* 20/14	+1.410 ( -0.093)
			0.836 0.539 0.099 - 0.164 0.000 0.000 +1.311 +1.410 0.003 0.005 0.004 - 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.011 0.014
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			757 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 929214794 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 1296 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• BQ: Hit or not hit?
  leobueno -- Thursday, 11 August 2011, at 11:29 p.m.
  • BQ: Hit or not hit?
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Friday, 12 August 2011, at 2:15 a.m.
  • BQ: Hit or not hit?
    Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 12 August 2011, at 7:29 a.m.
  • BQ: Hit or not hit?
    neilkaz -- Friday, 12 August 2011, at 5:22 p.m.
  • BQ: Hit or not hit? *** 4-ply analysis and ROLLOUT ***
    leobueno -- Friday, 12 August 2011, at 6:47 p.m.
    • BQ: Hit or not hit? *** 4-ply analysis and ROLLOUT ***
      Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 12 August 2011, at 6:55 p.m.
    • 3-ply trunc. rollout
      mtuhtan -- Saturday, 13 August 2011, at 9:27 a.m.
      • 3-ply full rollout
        mtuhtan -- Saturday, 13 August 2011, at 11:25 a.m.
    • BQ: Hit or not hit? *** 4-ply analysis and ROLLOUT ***
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 13 August 2011, at 1:42 p.m.