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BGonline.org Forums
Two disputed cube decisions
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Two disputed cube decisions (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Tuesday, 16 August 2011, at 6:46 p.m.
In the first position, White leads 2-0/7. If he passes the 4-cube, the score is 5-away all, for 50% MWC. If he passes in a money game, he loses 2 points.
The risk and gain of taking:
Action Money game 5-away 7-away Pass loses 2 points 50% MWC Take/win gammon wins 8 points, gains 10 points 100% MWC, gains 50% Take/win single wins 4 points, gains 6 points 91% MWC, gains 41% Take/lose single loses 4 points, risks 2 points 35% MWC, risks 15% Take/lose gammon loses 8 points, risk 6 points 0% MWC, risks 50% Finding your take point (TP) with the Risk/(Risk+Gain) formula.
Your TP, assuming no gammons (and no recubes to 8):
Money game 5-away 7-away TP = 2/(2+6) = 2/8 = 25% TP = 15%/(15%+41%) = 15%/56% = 26.7% And if gammons are included? Suppose one-third of your losses are gammons. Suppose none of your wins are gammons.
Money game 5-away 7-away TP = 3.3/(3.3+6) = 3.3/9.3 = 35.5% TP = 26.6%/(26.6%+41%) = 26.6%/67.6% = 39% But that's not all. Your cubeful money game TP is lower than 35.5% because you will be able to give normal money game recubes to 8. At the score, your redouble to 8 is severely constrained by your opponent's low and gammon-risk-free take point.
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