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I know what I'd do at 4a2a, but...

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 17 August 2011, at 3:58 a.m.

In Response To: I know what I'd do at 4a2a, but... (Timothy Chow)

I wonder if you're considering the double part or the take part of this decision. At the score the cube seems clear. I'd have to think about doubling for money so at -5 -2 it's a no brainer to cube. You have what I'd call 16 good/great shots and the rest of the deck plays find. The 2 away player's raw take point is very low, I think around 18%, but when you cube your gammon value jumps to ~.700. Let's say you win ~20% gammons here so your opponent would need ~32% winning chances to take the cube. Does he have it? Maybe? Probably? Not sure. Cube is a definite, take is suspect.

Stick

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