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I know what I'd do at 4a2a, but...

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 17 August 2011, at 12:37 p.m.

In Response To: I know what I'd do at 4a2a, but... (Timothy Chow)

To take in a money game, your wins less 1/2 of your net gammon losses must be at least ~22.5%.

To take leading 2-away 4-away, your wins less 100% of your gammon losses must be at least 20%.

To take leading 2-away 5-away, your wins less ~2/3 of your gammon losses must be at least ~17.5%.

Since this looks like a good money double but a clear money take, and looks like a clear drop at -2-4, I'd estimate Blue's wins at less than 70% and Blue's gammon wins at not much more than the ~20% White can expect to lose in a decently timed acepoint game. So ... close decision on the take. I wouldn't feel bad giving up a point here.

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