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Daily Quiz 8/16

Posted By: Pilgrim
Date: Wednesday, 17 August 2011, at 6:47 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 8/16 (Daily Quiz)

#1 - D/T. I would take because of the blue checkers on the 16 point and the fact that this could turn into a 3 point holding game. I would double because I have no idea whether this is enough to justify the take.

#2 - D/P. I seem to remember Robertie had a rule that it becomes a Double/take when you are 5 checkers-off behind your opponent and he was still on the bar. I guess that this applies only where there is a 1 point stack.This makes me think double pass. Thinking of EPC (more guessing than thinking - I do not get racing formulas right often), I would estimate Blue has an EPC of approximately 45 ((7x6)+1+ another couple because it is not a true 6 roll position); white has an EPC of approximately 52 ((3.5x7)+25+2.5 because the checkers are not a 1 point stack). I think (guess) the last point of take for white is number of rolls less 3, meaning the take point is 48-49. Also indicating a double/pass.

#3 - 13/10, 9/7. This increases the chance of extending the prime at either end. I quite like the look of 7/4, 6/4 - White may hit (13 out of 36) but if does not Blue has 28/36 shots of covering (and almost certainly winning)giving apprx 21 wins straigt off the bat. However, due to white's 4 point prime, I suspect the safer play is better here.

#4 - 7/5, 7/4. Seems to me the options are 6/3*,5/3*; 7/5,7/4; or 7/2. 7/2 seems a little passive and does little to help us get safely in. Hitting seems to buy White time and give us awkward 5s. This leaves 7/4, 7/4.

#5 - 13/8, 9/7. I have no idea on this one (possibly one for the DQR). It seems to be a question of which 2 - make the prime, hit the blot or move the back checker forward. To deal with these in reverse - moving the back checker does not do very much; hitting is nice but often a bad idea when you are also behind a six point prime (and have more home board points made so White's timing may improve more with a bounce). This leaves the priming option which, depsite having weaker timing may give us the best chance.

Pilgrim

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