OTB I knew my TP was ~ 15.8% so if I could become quite certain that I had more than 16% here, I would take. I have an extremely efficient position for 44 pips and my opp's 34 pips is clearly less efficient with a possible 4 gap and checkers on his lower points. Initially I though I could penalize him 3 pips and that would likely give me a close take AtS noting that 37 pips vs a very efficient 42 is a bare money take.
But upon further reflection, I really couldn't see how Joe's position could be expected to waste 3 more pips than mine. Two pips wastage seemed about right so 36 to 44 and I am every bit of 3 pips from a bare money take. So if 36 to 41 would be aboit 22% CPW, then being 3 pips worse than that clearly had to give me less than 15% so I passed not even being sure that I had 14% here.
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| XGID=-ABAABB------------ccba---:1:1:1:D:2:0:0:5:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 86.071% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 86.030% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 13.929% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 13.970% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.7214 | +1.3121 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.8994 (-0.1006) | ±0.0005 (+0.8989..+0.8999) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.1083 (+0.1083) | ±0.0001 (+1.1082..+1.1084) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 46746902 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 minute 04 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2