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Show all of your work

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 20 August 2011, at 1:47 p.m.

In Response To: Show all of your work (Stick)

White's off ~2/3 if he gets to roll. Blue has 2 winning doublets and 1/3 really bad rolls (11 21 31 41 22 42 43). 51 61 32 (and 52 62) aren't gin. The rest are. So Blue wins 2/36 + ~2/9 less non-gin = between 9 and 10 in 36 games.

7-away and 9-away MET's? Who knows, not me, but I'll give Blue 6% down 13-away 2-away, and each point = 6% so 9-away 6-away = 32% and 5-away 6-away 66%. So doubling risks 6% to gain 34% which means Blue has as a double.

And White risks 24% to gain 32% which means White has a take.

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