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BGonline.org Forums
Show all of your work
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: Show all of your work (Stick)
Date: Saturday, 20 August 2011, at 4:21 p.m.
Do the match equity stuff first. That might make the decision clear without a full accounting of winning chances. Let's first find the lower ledge of the doubling window. This is not a last roll position but is kind of close.
Some numbers are needed first.
No double win gives 9a 9a which gives 50%
Double win gives 5a 9a. How I handle these is that I know 8a 11a is 65% and then subtracting 1 from each boosts this 1%, with a 2% boost arriving at 4a 7a which gives 70%. That is from the MET preceeding RK but I know that trailer does just slightly better, I'll live with that. So 6a 9a is 67%. Since 9a 9a is 50% each win looks to be worth almost 6% (this is like Neil's numbers)so I will call it 73%
No double and lose gives 5a 13a. I think this is about same equity as 4a 11a which I know to be very close to 15%.
Double and lose goes to 1a 13a C. I know 1a 11a is low 3%. Also adding 2 to trailer multiplies by .6 (I thnk I saw Neil point that out somewhere) so call it 2%.
So we are risking 13% to gain 23%. You could put this into a percentage but why? It is better to think of it as 13 wins needed out of 36 games.
You clearly do not have that. You get 2 wins immediately from big doubles and less than 10 additional wins (they do not always win) from opponent missing. So no double is clear.
As a sidenote suppose that you were risking 13 to instead gain 28. That would be needing 13/41 Instead of putting this into a percentage you could adjust the denominator to 36. 13/41 is about 1/4th so of those 5 games that are taken away in the denominator take away 5/4 of a game in numerator. You would need about 11.8 games out of 36.
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