[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

3-away 4-away cube action

Posted By: Fabrice Liardet
Date: Saturday, 20 August 2011, at 9:28 p.m.

In Response To: 3-away 4-away cube action (Daniel Murphy)

I will first consider a pure 5-roll v 5-roll position. White's winning chances are about 28%. The take point without recube is about 35%. So if White is to convert his 28% cubeless into 35% cubeful, he has to cash on average at 28/35 = 80% GWC. The sooner he can recube is in a 3-roll vs 3-roll position, with 79% GWC (which in passing means that he will not take any advantage of his 60% cash point). Otherwise he will recube at 86% or 100%. So White seems quite short of a take.

Quiz factor says that the bad double aces change something to the assessment, but I can't see how it can be a big enough swing since it is White who has to roll the doubles anyway. I'd say D/P despite the QF.

Oh, I see something else : when Blue doesn't roll a double, White at 33% GWC is in his doubling window , which opens at 32%. Does it make a difference ? I doubt so, it is not a last roll situation so recubing is probably wrong.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.