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BGonline.org Forums
Why Risk it?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Why Risk it? (Max Levenstein)
Date: Monday, 22 August 2011, at 12:28 p.m.
If you play 24/16 (which should be better than 24/22 15/9 because it leaves the better anchor point slotted) you're vulnerable to attack on your 16, 21 and 24 points. Almost every one of your opponent's rolls will hit somewhere (but hardly ever on the acepoint).
So 21/13 looks a lot safer. You still have an anchor and have no blots.
But that's not the comparison you need to make.
On one hand, after 24/16 you will sometimes be crushed, but you will often survive the attack in better shape than you are in now. Few numbers point on you, and you might reanchor or hit a checker, or both.
On the other hand, after 21/13 what's your plan for advancing your back checkers? The main line seems to be to split with a 3 if you're lucky enough to roll one. If you do roll a splitting number, you'll still be vulnerable to attack, and perhaps more danger than after 21/13 now (you may not have an outfield blot, but your Opponent's checkers will probably be better distributed by then). If you don't, then you really have no plan at all except rolling a small doublet. And you do need a plan, because yur acepoint anchor is of little value; sit on it, and you'll probably end up losing the game.
So your choice is really either to run from the acepoint now while keeping the other two back checkers split, or run from the 21 and hope to split later if you can. Splitting now looks a lot better.
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