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Two questions about your Rollouts

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 22 August 2011, at 1:20 p.m.

In Response To: Two questions about your Rollouts (mtuhtan)

2. If you decide to do them, how can 819 games be enough trials when two moves are close?

Leo's cubeless rollout of position #2 had two plays separated by 0.031 with a reported standard deviation of 0.005. More decimal places would be nice. But we can convert the reported SD's to 95% confidence intervals:

Play 1: -0.451 ±0.0098 -> -0.4608 - -0.4412

Play 2: -0.482 ±0.0098 -> -0.4918 - -0.4722

There's no overlap here. If you want, use 98% confidence intervals:

Play 1: -0.451 ±0.01165 -> -0.46265 - -0.43935

Play 2: -0.482 ±0.01165 -> -0.49365 - -0.47035

Still no overlap. Or 99% confidence intervals:

Play 1: -0.451 ±0.012875 -> -0.463875 - -0.438125

Play 2: -0.482 ±0.012875 -> -0.494875 - -0.469125

Again. So 819 trials is enough for me.

Messages In This Thread

• What is the difference between these positions?
  Max Levenstein -- Sunday, 21 August 2011, at 5:44 a.m.
  • What is the difference between these positions?
    Udo Moerschbach -- Sunday, 21 August 2011, at 2:33 p.m.
    • What is the difference between these positions?
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 21 August 2011, at 5:07 p.m.
      • What is the difference between these positions? *Rollout* of #2
        leobueno -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 2:43 a.m.
        • What is the difference between these positions? *Rollout* of # 1
          leobueno -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 11:50 a.m.
          • Two questions about your Rollouts
            mtuhtan -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 12:55 p.m.
            • Two questions about your Rollouts
              Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 1:20 p.m.
              • Two questions about your Rollouts
                mtuhtan -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 1:33 p.m.
                • Two questions about your Rollouts
                  Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 1:55 p.m.
                  • Two questions about your Rollouts
                    mtuhtan -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 2:53 p.m.
                    • Two questions about your Rollouts
                      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 3:05 p.m.
                      • Two questions about your Rollouts
                        mtuhtan -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 3:27 p.m.
                        • Short Rollout #2
                          Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 4:00 p.m.
                        • Minimum number of trials
                          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 5:21 p.m.
                    • Two questions about your Rollouts
                      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 5:05 p.m.
                      • Two questions about your Rollouts
                        Leonardo Jerkovic -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 5:30 p.m.
                • Two questions about your Rollouts
                  Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 2:55 p.m.
                • Two questions about your Rollouts
                  Bob Koca -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 3:17 p.m.