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Rollout

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Monday, 22 August 2011, at 3:54 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (christian munk-christensen)

The 10 games in which the opponent would not be missing. It is short enough to do OTB, though it helps to have the number of winning rolls for each two checker position memorized.

First do the non doubles:

2-1 22 misses

3-1 17 misses, total of 39

4-1 13 misses total of 52

5-1 and 6-1, 5 misses each, total of 62

3-2 13 misses, total of 75

4-2 31 misses, total of 106

5-2 or 6-2, 2 misses each, total of 110

4-3 30 misses, total of 140

Now double these to get 280 (why we did non doubles first)

2-2 30 misses so total of 310 misses

1-1 (missing in Stick's list btw) 17 misses. Total of 327 misses.

So of the 10 games in which the opponent misses you lose 327/1296 of them. 324/1296 is 1/4th so slightly more than 25% of them. So at just under 7.5 wins.

In the 26 games in which he does bear off you actually win 2/36 of them. 52/36 is a little less than 1.5 wins. So just under 9 wins or 25% overall.

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