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OLM Mo 8/22/11

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 23 August 2011, at 9:39 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Mo 8/22/11 (Jason Lee)

This looks like a classic "pay-now" position to me.
  • White's position is improving.
  • Blue has run out of time. He may make the lower points in his board, and thereby improve his position, but if he gives up the eight point now, he will have trouble holding onto the six point later.
  • If White misses the shot on the midpoint, Blue has good odds of getting home safely.

Breaking the eight point (8/2, 8/7) leaves just 11 shots. Running off the midpoint (13/6) leaves 17 shots (any 1 or 8). But if Blue does not try running now, he may be forced to run the next time he rolls a six anyway. He'll have just one or two rolls to pop a double.

My vote: 13/6.

Mike

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