The choice is extremely close. After 20k rollout ND is winning by .0004
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| XGID=--ABBbC-B---bEaaac-bc-----:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:15:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 73.804% (G:4.121% B:0.137%) | 73.813% (G:4.085% B:0.137%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 26.196% (G:2.582% B:0.085%) | 26.187% (G:2.596% B:0.093%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.4910 | +0.9905 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.8788 | ±0.0025 (+0.8763..+0.8813) |
| Double/Take: | +0.8784 (-0.0004) | ±0.0028 (+0.8756..+0.8812) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.1212) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.3% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 58.3% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 5 hours 57 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2
Two comparison positions are worth noting:
Some thought the score would be an important factor. There is a definite difference in the equity after taking, being about .025 better in an unlimited game compared to being up 10a 14a. However the doubling choice matters much less. Whether at score or unlimited game it would usually be double/take next turn so the equity difference for both is small. For unlimited game the no double looks correct but by only .0037
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| XGID=--ABBbC-B---bEaaac-bc-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 73.813% (G:4.158% B:0.135%) | 73.939% (G:3.659% B:0.090%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 26.187% (G:2.576% B:0.084%) | 26.061% (G:2.494% B:0.075%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.4926 | +0.9812 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.8569 | ±0.0026 (+0.8544..+0.8595) |
| Double/Take: | +0.8532 (-0.0037) | ±0.0027 (+0.8505..+0.8559) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.1431) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.5% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 97.6% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 4 hours 48 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00
The difference between having 4 or 5 checkers on the midpoint is also worth looking at. I gave a 64 and then made the other side a little better aiming for the same cubeless equity. Despite the cubeless equity being a little bit lower and the DT equty being more than .01 lower the position with 4 on the midpoint is now a clear cube with waiting being a .05 error.   |
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| XGID=--ACBbC-B---bDa--bbbbb----:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:15:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 73.77% (G:3.06% B:0.05%) | 73.80% (G:3.04% B:0.05%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 26.23% (G:2.42% B:0.07%) | 26.20% (G:2.43% B:0.07%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.480 | +0.968 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.816 (-0.050) | ±0.009 (+0.806..+0.825) |
| Double/Take: | +0.866 | ±0.009 (+0.856..+0.875) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.134) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 20 minutes 03 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2