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Why Risk it? *Rollout*

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Tuesday, 23 August 2011, at 11:11 a.m.

In Response To: Why Risk it? (Max Levenstein)

JSD > 4 for the safe play. Top two plays too close to call; need longer rollout.

Please explain why the intuitive safe play is wrong.

The score (after 0 games) is: Player_1 0, Player_2 0 (match to 7 points)

Move number 5: Player_2 to play 62

Player_1	157
Player_2	157
Position ID: sNsDAibwzsEAMQ Match ID: UQnrAAAAAAAE

• Player_2 moves 21/13

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		-0.198	(Money: -0.194)
	42.7 14.4 0.6 - 57.3 19.0 1.0
Cubeful equities:
	4-ply cubeful prune
1.	No double	-0.052
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+1.052
3.	Double, take	-0.729	-0.677
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (39.1%)

Alert: bad move ( -0.063)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	24/22 21/15	-0.118
			40.7 12.8 1.3 - 59.3 19.8 1.1 -0.273 -0.118 0.2 0.2 0.2 - 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.006 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1814 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 929909571 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 216 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	24/16	-0.124 ( -0.006)
			40.7 13.8 1.8 - 59.3 21.7 1.5 -0.286 -0.124 0.2 0.2 0.2 - 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.005 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1812 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 929909571 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 216 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	21/13	-0.181 ( -0.063)
			38.6 11.6 0.9 - 61.4 20.3 1.0 -0.333 -0.181 0.2 0.2 0.2 - 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.006 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1066 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 929909571 and quasi-random dice
			Stop when best play is enough JSDs ahead: limit 4 (min. 216 games)
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	3	21/15 8/6	-0.329 ( -0.211)
			34.6 10.7 0.4 - 65.4 22.9 1.4
			3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
	5	3	21/15 6/4	-0.412 ( -0.294)
			33.5 9.7 0.3 - 66.5 27.0 2.3
			3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
	6	3	24/22 8/2	-0.418 ( -0.300)
			33.6 11.1 0.5 - 66.4 29.1 2.3
			3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
	7	3	21/15 13/11	-0.546 ( -0.428)
			29.8 9.1 0.4 - 70.2 30.0 2.8
			3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
	8	3	13/5	-0.573 ( -0.455)
			27.8 8.6 0.4 - 72.2 28.3 1.8
			3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]

Messages In This Thread

• Why Risk it?
  Max Levenstein -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 7:41 a.m.
  • Why Risk it?
    Mick Dyett -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 9:52 a.m.
    • +1 *NM*
      christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 11:54 a.m.
  • Why Risk it?
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 12:28 p.m.
    • Why Risk it?
      svilo -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 1:57 p.m.
  • Why Risk it?
    misja -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 2:03 p.m.
  • Why Risk it?
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 5:38 p.m.
  • Why Risk it? *Rollout*
    leobueno -- Tuesday, 23 August 2011, at 11:11 a.m.
    • leobueno asks, "Why is the Intuitive Safe Play Wrong?"
      Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 23 August 2011, at 11:35 a.m.