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Daily Quiz 8/23

Posted By: Pilgrim
Date: Wednesday, 24 August 2011, at 12:31 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 8/23 (Daily Quiz)

Hello,

Sorry, I am running out of time so this will have to be short (and probably riddled with more inaccuracies than normal)

#1 - 7/5, 6/5 - I looked at three candidate moves: 13/11, 24/23; 7/5, 6/5 and 6/4*, 24/23. None of the candidates seem outstanding so I would just make the 5 point. This is DMP so there are no cubes or gammons and the game may well be longer than usual - the 5 point will be an asset throughout.

#2 - 14/11, 14/9 - run while white has a blot in its home board. The question to me is 14/11, 14/9 or 14/6. I would run both from the 14 point to make white hit with its forward anchor and to make things easy to clear up if we are not hit.

#3 - Double/Pass - I am no fan of match play and I am very weak at it. I have no idea whether this is a take. However, it seems to me blue is way behind in the match and has both position & some threat in the game. This indicates the double. The take point seems to me to be approximately the same as money (using the Woolsey Heinrich MET because I am in a hurry and it is the first I found, DTW - 97%, DTL - 80%, DP - 84%, we are risking 4% to gain 13% which leads to a raw take point of 4/17). Adjusting for gammons (which are more valuable for blue & practically worthless for white), I have no idea what the precise gammon value for blue is or the gammon rate from this position. I guess the gammon rate is about the same as the start of the game (as white only has one back), so we will say 15%. I guess the gammon value is only marginally higher (because even with a gammon, white will have 70% MET). 0.6 x 15 is 9%. This gives a take point of approximately 34% and if I am going to be wrong, I have probably underestimated the gammon value and gammons. It seems to me white is probably very close to this. I would therefore drop and see what happens in the next game.

#4 - ND/T

#5 - ND/Take

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