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Ballard/Grandell - Checker Play 2

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Wednesday, 29 August 2007, at 11:51 a.m.

In Response To: Ballard/Grandell - Checker Play 2 (Stick)

Now this one is interesting.

Blue needs to roll a 6 to win. Usually you're supposed to hit to buy time to run, but White has nothing in place to attack Blue with, except 5's (if he should use 5's to hit), and Blue has no direct covers for the ace. On the other hand, 13/11 13/8 leaves no directs and gets 3 builders for the bar point. Blue can't hope to win a priming battle, but he can buy more time for the escape if he does make the bar. So the main virtue of hitting is to prevent White from anchoring.

Which play do we prefer when White rolls an ace? Pretty sure Blue prefers to have played safe. What about when White doesn't roll an ace? Blue would prefer to have hit. Are the gains from not hitting when White does roll an ace twice as much as the gains from hitting when White doesn't roll an ace?

I'm not sure, but I think I'd play 13/11 13/8.

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