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All-in?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 27 August 2011, at 9:09 a.m.

In Response To: All-in? (Casper van der Tak)

But when would that be correct? (for White to double)

Not after being hit with an ace or 4-1. What about after being hit once with a 4? I figure that makes White a favorite if he enters but a dog if he fans. Roughly 3/4*1/3 + 1/4*2/3 = 5/12 = 42%. Or 2/5*2/3 + 3/5*1/3 = 46%. Or 1/3*2/3 + 2/3*1/3 = 44%. I'm not too precise! At 2-away all it's not impossible to have a double with 42% gwc. Nor is it impossible to have a double if a lot of numbers after ND lead to double-out, if that were true here. But I don't see any market losers. If White enters and covers, he's too good. Or 6-6 followed by a miss, also too good.

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