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8-cube for the match

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 28 August 2011, at 12:17 a.m.

In Response To: 8-cube for the match (Daniel Murphy)

Thanks for the practice. I'm not very good at this, so I'm sure I did it the long way! In both of these positions, Blue will make more efficient use of a cube at 8 than White. That fact should be reflected in the relevant equity calculations. I have used the Kazaross XG2 MET below. Mike Top Position — Blue Checkers on 4 and 6 Game Winning Chances (GWC) Blue will win with 8 rolls: 33, 44, 55, 66, 46, 56 Blue's GWC = 8/36 = 22.2% White's GWC = 28/36 = 77.8% Blue's Match Winning Chances (MWC) after Not Doubling MWC( ND/W ) = MWC( Blue 14, White 12 ) = MWC( Blue 3a, White 5a ) = 64.795% MWC( ND/L ) = MWC( Blue 10, White 16 ) = MWC( Blue 7a, White 1aC ) = 9.276% MWC = (28/36) * 9.276% + (8/36) * 64.795% = 21.6% Blue's Match Winning Chances after Double/Take MWC( D/T/W ) = 100% MWC( D/T/L ) = 0% MWC = (8/36) * 100% = 22.2% Blue's Match Winning Chances after Double/Pass MWC( D/P ) = MWC( Blue 14, White 12 ) = MWC( Blue 3a, White 5a ) = 64.795% The proper cube action is: double, take. Bottom Position — Blue Checkers on 2 and 4 Game Winning Chances (GWC) Blue will win with 23 rolls: 22, 33, 44, 55, 66, 24, 25, 26, 34, 35, 36, 45, 46, 56 Blue's GWC = 23/36 = 63.9% White's GWC = 13/36 = 36.1% Blue's Match Winning Chances (MWC) after Not Doubling MWC( ND/W ) = MWC( Blue 14, White 12 ) = MWC( Blue 3a, White 5a ) = 64.795% MWC( ND/L ) = MWC( Blue 10, White 16 ) = MWC( Blue 7a, White 1aC ) = 9.276% MWC = (23/36) * 64.795% + (13/36) * 9.276% = 44.7% Blue's Match Winning Chances after Double/Take MWC( D/T/W ) = 100% MWC( D/T/L ) = 0% MWC = (23/36) * 100% = 63.9% Blue's Match Winning Chances after Double/Pass MWC( D/P ) = MWC( Blue 14, White 12 ) = MWC( Blue 3a, White 5a ) = 64.795% The proper cube action is: double, take.

Messages In This Thread

• 8-cube for the match
  Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 27 August 2011, at 8:42 p.m.
  • 8-cube for the match
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Saturday, 27 August 2011, at 11:19 p.m.
  • 8-cube for the match
    Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 28 August 2011, at 12:17 a.m.
  • 8-cube for the match
    christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 28 August 2011, at 7:17 p.m.
    • 8-cube for the match
      christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 28 August 2011, at 7:20 p.m.