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OLM Mo 8/22/11 ROLLOUT

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 28 August 2011, at 5:14 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Mo 8/22/11 ROLLOUT (Jason Lee)

Three Gnubg rollouts below.

The first is the original position. 13/6 is on top after 2592 trials but the two plays are close (although not quite as close as in Jason's XG rollout!).

In the second, I've moved one Blue checker one pip to give Blue a made 2 point. Now 13/6 is better by a lot. Does that make sense? Yes. 13/6 leaves 17 immediate shots instead of 11. If Blue is hit, and return hits on White's 3 point (or hits later while escaping), a blotless 4 point board turns more of those exchanges into winners.

In the third, Blue's position is unchanged, but I've moved one White checker 5 pips to give White a made 3 point. Now 8/7 8/2 is best. Does that make sense?

The score is: White 5, Blue 1 (match to 15 points). Blue to play 6-1

White	135
Blue	86
Position ID: tM2SAQN65wwGAA Match ID: QQnnAVAACAAE

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/6	+0.0918
			0.5855 0.0926 0.0023 - 0.4145 0.0451 0.0014 +0.2348 +0.0918 0.0008 0.0010 0.0002 - 0.0008 0.0008 0.0002 0.0020 0.0035
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 930826788 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/7 8/2	+0.0771 ( -0.0147)
			0.5696 0.1126 0.0051 - 0.4304 0.0636 0.0026 +0.2105 +0.0771 0.0009 0.0011 0.0004 - 0.0009 0.0009 0.0002 0.0025 0.0038
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 930826788 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	135
Blue	85
Position ID: tM2SAQN25wwGAA Match ID: QQnnAVAACAAE

• Blue moves 13/6

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/6	+0.1534
			0.6041 0.1130 0.0038 - 0.3959 0.0376 0.0017 +0.3057 +0.1534 0.0022 0.0027 0.0008 - 0.0022 0.0019 0.0005 0.0057 0.0107
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1010101010 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/7 8/2	+0.0787 ( -0.0747)
			0.5703 0.1154 0.0097 - 0.4297 0.0645 0.0022 +0.2163 +0.0787 0.0024 0.0030 0.0035 - 0.0024 0.0026 0.0005 0.0071 0.0099
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1010101010 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	130
Blue	86
Position ID: bJuSAQN65wwGAA Match ID: QQnnAVAACAAE

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.038)

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.316)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	8/7 8/2	-0.0323
			0.5455 0.0717 0.0043 - 0.4545 0.0638 0.0050 +0.1135 -0.0323 0.0022 0.0023 0.0026 - 0.0022 0.0025 0.0022 0.0056 0.0101
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 930826788 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	13/6	-0.0699 ( -0.0376)
			0.5353 0.0493 0.0014 - 0.4647 0.0510 0.0010 +0.0798 -0.0699 0.0019 0.0017 0.0002 - 0.0019 0.0018 0.0007 0.0038 0.0073
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 930826788 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• OLM Mo 8/22/11
  Jason Lee -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 10:24 p.m.
  • OLM Mo 8/22/11
    Justin N. -- Monday, 22 August 2011, at 11:47 p.m.
  • OLM Mo 8/22/11
    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 23 August 2011, at 1:33 a.m.
  • OLM Mo 8/22/11
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 23 August 2011, at 2:00 a.m.
  • OLM Mo 8/22/11
    Stick -- Tuesday, 23 August 2011, at 2:58 a.m.
  • OLM Mo 8/22/11
    Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 23 August 2011, at 9:39 a.m.
  • OLM Mo 8/22/11
    Havard Raddum -- Tuesday, 23 August 2011, at 10:58 a.m.
  • OLM Mo 8/22/11
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 23 August 2011, at 2:36 p.m.
  • OLM Mo 8/22/11
    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 23 August 2011, at 10:58 p.m.
  • OLM Mo 8/22/11
    Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 24 August 2011, at 2:18 a.m.
    • OLM Mo 8/22/11
      Stick -- Wednesday, 24 August 2011, at 2:23 a.m.
  • OLM Mo 8/22/11 ROLLOUT
    Jason Lee -- Saturday, 27 August 2011, at 11:54 p.m.
    • OLM Mo 8/22/11 ROLLOUT
      Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 28 August 2011, at 5:14 p.m.
      • OLM Mo 8/22/11 ROLLOUT
        Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 28 August 2011, at 5:37 p.m.